In France, as of January 1, 2024, the population stands at 68.4 million inhabitants. People aged 75 and over represent 10.4% of this total, marking an increase of 1.6 points since 2010. In this context of demographic aging, the question of the actual share of the population reaching the age of 95 deserves careful examination of the available data.
Probability of reaching 95 years: what mortality tables reveal
The mortality tables published by Insee allow us to track, generation by generation, the proportion of people surviving at each age. For cohorts born in the first half of the 20th century, the fraction reaching 95 years remains very small, even though it progresses from one generation to the next.
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This progression is explained by the increase in life expectancy at older ages. According to data from Social Security, life expectancy at age 65 is steadily rising in France. Longevity gains are now concentrated in the oldest age groups, which mechanically increases the number of people crossing the thresholds of 90 and then 95 years.
To better understand the percentage of people reaching 95 years, it is necessary to distinguish between two measures that are often confused: the proportion of survivors within a given generation (longitudinal approach) and the share of those aged 95 and over in the total population at a given moment (cross-sectional approach). The two figures tell different stories.
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Age structure of nonagenarians in France: 90-94 years, 95-99 years, centenarians
The Territorial Observatory and Insee provide data on the number of people aged 90 and over residing in France. Within this group, the distribution is very uneven. The majority of nonagenarians are between 90 and 94 years old, with the 95-99 age group being significantly smaller, and centenarians even rarer.
The demographic projections from Insee (central scenario, updated in 2024) anticipate a marked increase in the 95-99 age group by the horizon of 2040-2050. This increase is directly linked to the arrival at advanced ages of the large baby boom generations. The report from the High Commissioner for Planning published in 2023 specifies that the population aged over 85 will experience a growth rate exceeding 50% in the decade 2030-2040, which will subsequently feed into the cohort of near-centenarians.
This phenomenon is not linear. The baby boom effect creates a demographic wave that moves through the age pyramid, successively inflating each age group. Once this wave has passed, the proportion of those aged 95 and over could stabilize or even decrease if birth rates remain low.
Women and men facing great longevity: a persistent gap
The overrepresentation of women among the very old is a significant demographic fact. Insee indicates that women make up the vast majority of people aged 90 and over. This gap widens even further beyond 95 years, where men represent only a very small fraction.
Several factors explain this differential:
- The life expectancy of women at 65 remains higher than that of men, despite a gradual catch-up observed in recent decades.
- Risk behaviors (smoking, alcohol consumption, occupational exposure) have historically affected men from the relevant generations more.
- Biological factors, still debated by researchers, seem to confer a survival advantage to women at the oldest ages.
On the other hand, recent work from Ined shows that the level of education strongly influences the probability of reaching 90 years and beyond. The most educated individuals enjoy a clear longevity advantage, leading to an overrepresentation of higher education graduates among nonagenarians and near-centenarians. This social factor partially overlaps with the gender factor, without completely overlapping.
Limitations of available data on those aged 95 and over
Statistics on very old ages present weaknesses that popular analyses rarely mention. Population data at extreme ages suffer from inaccuracies related to civil status declarations and counting methods in medical-social establishments.
The long-term projections from Insee rely on uncertain future mortality assumptions. The central scenario assumes a continuation of life expectancy gains, but other scenarios consider a slowdown or even a plateau. Field returns diverge on this point: some epidemiological studies suggest a slowdown in longevity gains at very old ages in the most advanced European countries.
The share of people aged 75 and over is expected to reach 16.4% of the population by 2050 according to Insee estimates, compared to 10.4% at the beginning of 2024. For the specific age group of 95 and over, the available data do not allow for a single and definitive percentage to be established. The answer depends on the generation studied, gender, social background, and the scenario chosen for mortality evolution.
The aging of the French population, with the number of people aged 75 to 84 rising from 4.1 million in 2020 to 6.1 million in 2030, raises questions about public finances and the management of dependency well before the symbolic issue of reaching 95 years. The proportion of near-centenarians is increasing, but remains a statistically narrow reality that currently concerns only a minority of each generation.